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Analytical Decision Support (ADS) Modeling Hub

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services has primary responsibility to prepare for and respond to national health care emergencies in coordination with other agencies, including the Departments of Defense (DoD) and Homeland Security (DHS ) in the event of a public health threat. To assist and inform its planning, preparedness, and real-time response requirements, BARDA established the Analytical Decision Support (ADS) group as a central modeling and analysis hub for HHS.

The Modeling Hub provides analytic support to identify and understand medical and public health consequence gaps for operational aspects of medical countermeasure deployment and administration. This includes detailing the challenges and uncertainties which are key to communicating results to decision makers.

The Modeling Hub provides analytical support to BARDA, ASPR, and the PHEMCE partners by developing analyses, identifying processes, and assisting in the structuring of decision support systems focusing on medical countermeasure decision making capabilities. These efforts span advanced research and development of medical countermeasures to include the planning and operations to improve the level of public health preparedness and federal response capabilities for CBRN, influenza, and emerging infectious disease scenarios.

One key area of investigation is capabilities-based analysis. This analysis identifies the response capabilities (like reduction in fatalities) that are possible with different response strategies and resources based on the consequences from the exposure scenario. Different exposure scenarios can create different demands on the response strategies and resources depending on the number, severity, timeframe, and spatial extent of the exposed population. The Modeling Hub helps to evaluate changes to response capabilities involving medical countermeasures and to identify and quantify the effect that additional response assets can provide.

The Modeling Hub also assists in prioritizing research investments at BARDA and evaluates the impact of policy decisions to minimize adverse medical and public health consequences. The Modeling Hub produces in-depth assessments, reports and visualization tools to guide decision-making within BARDA's senior staff and among ASPR's public health officials and policy makers. This is achieved by modeling the medical and public health consequences of historical and potential incidents of CBRN, influenza and emerging infectious diseases that may benefit from the intervention of medical countermeasures and innovations in the public health response system.

The Modeling Hub's activities inform and support Project BioShield and pandemic influenza planning and requirements for decision making. Per the direction of The 2005 National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Implementation Plan, BARDA and the Analytical Decision Support group have the responsibility for managing the Modeling Hub to provide real-time mathematical modeling, simulation and analysis designed to assess alternative policy and procurement options for medical countermeasures and emergency public health planning and response for decision making.